In just 8 days time, Scotland will go to the polls to vote on whether or not to become an independent country from the rest of the UK.
When the campaigns for and against the union kicked off two years ago, nobody actually thought things would come down to the wire and a near 50-50 split but a combination of continued dissatisfaction with the policies of the UK government in Westminster, a generally arrogant and backwards attitude from the "No" camp and a spirited social media driven campaign from the "Yes" side has edged the needle toward the middle for polling.
I've read a lot of "I'm voting yes" stories, some with very convincing arguments but personally I am voting No and here's why...
1. The big questions that haven't got answers
I'm not niaive enough to assume that every single possible factor and outcome should be considered and planned for but it really feels like nothing has been planned! The white paper that was published by the Yes camp a year ago is unable to offer a cold hard plan, just a lot of "we want this, we want that" making it more of a manifesto than a plan for disolving the union.
Some questions that have genuinely got no formal answers:
- Currency: The Yes side seem convinced that they will get the pound (and one way or another they will) but tying your fortunes to the very nation that you claim is cutting off your potential seems very backward to me. How will an independent Scotland be able to manage an economy that is directly affected but the decisions of a UK government in Westminister?
- Healthcare: Despite the fact that the Scottish parliament has 100% control over the NHS in Scotland, somehow things will be improved in an independent Scotland. This argument continues to baffle me
- Defense: Somehow we will be able to form, fund and run a defense force out of the ashes of Trident, the british army and the RAF
- Benefits: A large proportion of the Yes voters seem to be those who claim a lot of social care. They're going to be pretty disappointed when they find out that their benefits will be cut to fund all the other promises!
- Jobs: Somehow, despite the fact that the loss of the various state jobs that will come with a removal of Westminister and introduction of a "streamlined" Scottish Government, we are promised more jobs.
2. To certain parts of the country, it really won't matter
I live in the north east of Scotland, an area that tends to get limited interest from both Scottish and UK governments so regardless of how many people vote Yes, this area will still get passed over for infrastructure funding for road and rail, stimulus for business and generally every thing other than defense.
3. Oil money
Sir Ian Wood, an expert in all things oil was cited by the Yes campaign repeatedly at the start of their campaign and oil was going to be the backbone of an independent scots economy, but when Sir Wood came out and said there was 20 years worth of oil remaining suddenly he was no longer trustworthy to that same Yes campaign and they now speak of a broad base of scottish industry including farming and tourism being the backbone.
My concern here is that aside from tourism, Scots industries are not in a position to support a whole country, particularly one whos chief export market will be the very place they want to be independent of! I recieved a very nice Yes leaflet recently which highlighted all the ways that Scotland can make money, but Oil was still the biggest by far.
Whether or not oil lasts for 2, 20 or 200 years, it will be the backbone for Scotlands economy and needs to be at the forefront of the discussion, not shoved out of sight when it doesn't suit!
An argument I hear frequently tossed is the McCrone report which, in a nutshell was a buried UK government report on oil in the 1970s which strongly implied that Scotland could survive on its Oil without the rest of the UK.
My answer to that is simply that 40 years is a long time and a great many things have changed including the size and age ranges of the population, the numbers now on some form of social care or benefits and the costs of running a country.
I won't sit and defend the UK government for burying a report 40 years ago but I also won't punish the current government for something it didn't do. In other words the report is a null point in modern life and a null point in the referendum campaign.
4. Xenophobia and ignorance
Let me preface by saying that I will always respect the opinion of anyone who respects mine and i've had some spirited debate with people who are voting yes.
There is however a great deal of xenophobia surrounding the Yes campaign, with far too many people voting Yes with a "F*ck the English" attitude as their motivation, particularly people who are following friends or family with this attitude rather than making up their minds based on facts.
Yes, the poll tax and Thatcherism were brutal for Scotland but it has been several decades since then and the governments of today and the problems and solutions of today should be the forefront of the debate, not ancient grudges.
I'm aware that some of the problems of today are related to or were caused by the issues of the 70's and 80's but how will going independent change that? Will Alex Salmond be recommissioning mining in the central belt in two years time? I doubt it...
5. Immediate Consequences
At the end of the day, despite any promises to the contrary, it will be at least five years before the impact of an independence vote will really be felt by people and ten years before the true extent of what has happened and what lays ahead will become clear.
The days and months following a Yes or No result will be critical in shaping the future of both Scotland and the UK but the true result will be what is felt by our children and their children and that needs to be at the forefront of any decisions we make.
Yes, some people and even some businesses will have snap reactions to the result, some may be violent but it's so important that we get it right and don't descend into infighting.
Conclusion
I doubt that anyone reading this will have been convinced to change sides suddenly but I hope that I may have made you stop and think about the process you are using to make your decision.
I am voting no for the reasons i have outlined here and because for all its faults - and there are many - the UK is the safest horse to bet on in this race and I don't want to leave my kids futures in the hands of giant question marks.
